Identifying Criminal Predictors In At-Risk Youth

Abstract

IDENTIFYING CRIMINAL PREDICTORS IN AT-RISK YOUTH Christine Mae Hanson, B.A. Thesis Advisor: Christopher M. Toppe, Ph.D. ABSTRACT Crime existed in our earliest community arrangements, and given its historical prevalence, its absolute eradication may prove impossible. To be sure, historical responses to this social phenomenon provide ample opportunity to study and evaluate various control mechanisms. Among the most successful strategies are those which begin by targeting a location or a segment of the population and focusing energies accordingly, and this paper follows in kind. The study uses the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth from 1997, containing 7,258 observations of youths aged 12-16, to identify household characteristics that influence a youths probability of engaging in criminal behavior. Examining relationships between household characteristics and behavioral outcomes, this study uses probit regression to identify connections between households receiving government aid and youth criminal activity, and also between households composed of two or more adults and youth criminal activity. Regression results suggest that a youth residing in a household receiving government aid has a higher likelihood of engaging in criminal behavior, whereas a youth residing in a household containing two or more adults has a lower likelihood of engaging in criminal behavior. A discussion follows in which elements of the different household environments are considered as potential contributors to criminal activity. Policy recommendations aimed at reducing criminal activity among at-risk youth conclude the paper.