PARTIAL DEMOCRACIES EFFECT ON ADVERSE REGIME CHANGE  A CROSS COUNTRY ANALYSIS

Abstract

Empirical studies prove that partial democracies are more likely to face political instability than any other form of government. This paper empirically studies the hypothesis that partial democracies are the most vulnerable regime type when looking at a specific form of political instability, namely adverse regime change. Adverse regime changes are major, abrupt shifts in patterns of governance, including state collapse, periods of severe elite or regime instability, and shifts away from democracy toward authoritarian rule. This hypothesis is tested through the use of logistic regression models on data compiled from the State Failure Task Force Phase IV dataset. The results show that strong partial democracies are in fact less likely to face adverse regime change than weak autocracies or weak full democracies, therefore rejecting the hypothesis.