EXPLOITING A NEGATIVE SUPPLY SHOCK TO UNDERSTAND BETTER MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENTS IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY

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EXPLOITING A NEGATIVE SUPPLY SHOCK TO UNDERSTAND BETTER MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENTS IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY

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dc.contributor.advisor Sawers, Larry en_US
dc.contributor.author Tracy, Brandon Shane en_US
dc.contributor.other Feinberg, Robert en_US
dc.contributor.other Sheng, Xuguang en_US
dc.contributor.other Mathur, Subodh en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2012-08-22T15:01:37Z
dc.date.available 2012-08-22T15:01:37Z
dc.date.created 2011 en_US
dc.date.issued 2012-08-22
dc.identifier.other Tracy_american_0008E_10129 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1961/11131
dc.description Degree awarded: Ph.D. Economics. American University en_US
dc.description.abstract In 2001 the Brazilian government implemented a national electricity rationing program that lasted nine months and mandated the reduction of electricity consumption by 20 percent. The rationing program received much blame when the economy grew only one percent in 2001. This dissertation motivates the questions: What were the effects of the rationing program on the Brazilian economy? Were existing economic relationships altered by the rationing program? And, What role did substitution play in allowing the economy to adjust to the reduced electricity consumption?Uni-variate and multivariate forecasting techniques are used with monthly data to estimate the impact of the rationing program. During the intervention period, industrial electricity consumption was 16.4 percent below trend values and commercial electricity consumption was 25.2 below trend values; GDP was 3.1 percent below trend values. Economic relationships, as indicated by Granger causality, do change between the pre-intervention and post-intervention periods. Elasticities of substitution, calculated from the parameters of a translog cost function using annual data, are quite stable during the intervention. Fuel substitution does not appear to be the primary means of adjusting to the input shock. en_US
dc.format.extent 125 p. en_US
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf en_US
dc.publisher American University en_US
dc.subject Economics en_US
dc.subject Energy en_US
dc.subject.other Brazil en_US
dc.subject.other causality en_US
dc.subject.other electricity en_US
dc.subject.other shock en_US
dc.subject.other substitution en_US
dc.title EXPLOITING A NEGATIVE SUPPLY SHOCK TO UNDERSTAND BETTER MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENTS IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY en_US
dc.type Text en_US
dc.type Dissertation en_US


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