http://aladinrc.wrlc.org:80/handle/1961/4918 Sun, 19 May 2013 15:55:13 GMT 2013-05-19T15:55:13Z http://aladinrc.wrlc.org:80/bitstream/id/48559/ http://aladinrc.wrlc.org:80/handle/1961/4918 http://aladinrc.wrlc.org:80/handle/1961/4984 Testing for Structural Breaks and other forms of Non-stationarity: a Misspecification Perspective∗ Heracleous, Maria S.; Koutris, Andreas; Spanos, Aris In the 1980s and 1990s the issue of non-stationarity in economic time series has been discussed in the context of unit roots vs. mean trends in AR(p) models. More recently this perspective has been extended to include structural breaks. In this paper we take a much broader perspective by viewing the problem of changing parameters as one of misspecification testing due to the nonstationarity of the underlying process. The proposed misspecification testing procedure relies on resampling techniques to enhance the informational content of the observed data in an attempt to capture heterogeneity ‘locally’ using rolling window estimators of the primary moments of the stochastic process. The effectiveness of the testing procedure is assessed using extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Working Paper No. 2006-17. 26 pages. Sun, 01 Jan 2006 00:00:00 GMT http://aladinrc.wrlc.org:80/handle/1961/4984 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z http://aladinrc.wrlc.org:80/handle/1961/4983 Legal Rules and Bankruptcy Rates: Historical Evidence from the States Hansen, Mary Eschelbach; Hansen, Bradley A. Since the early twentieth century, observers have attributed the wide variation in state bankruptcy rates to variation in state legal rules such as garnishment and bankruptcy exemptions. Recent econometric analyses, however, conclude that legal rules do not matter. We explore the impact of legal rules on bankruptcy rates using a new technique—fixed effects vector decomposition—to exploit historical variation in legal rules. The technique allows us to estimate the impact of timeinvariant legal rules in a fixed effects framework. We find that the variation in state legal rules explains much of the variation in state wage earner bankruptcy rates for 1926 to 1932. Working Paper No. 2006-16. 49 pages. Fri, 01 Dec 2006 00:00:00 GMT http://aladinrc.wrlc.org:80/handle/1961/4983 2006-12-01T00:00:00Z http://aladinrc.wrlc.org:80/handle/1961/4982 Tradeoffs in Formulating a Consistent National Policy on Adoption Hansen, Mary Eschelbach; Pollack, Daniel Just as the courts must consider the tradeoff between the best interest of the child and parental rights in involuntary termination of parental rights, policy on international adoption must consider the tradeoffs between the best interest of the child and the long-term interests of the nation. We argue that countries that suspend international adoptions do not maximize social welfare. A consistent national policy to maximize the well-being of the children and society at large would be to devote resources today to the oversight of international adoption in accord with child protections under the Hague Convention, while at the same time developing a domestic system of care that provides for the physical and developmental needs of orphaned children in the context of permanent families. Working Paper No. 2006-14. 18 pages. Tue, 21 Nov 2006 00:00:00 GMT http://aladinrc.wrlc.org:80/handle/1961/4982 2006-11-21T00:00:00Z http://aladinrc.wrlc.org:80/handle/1961/4981 The Distribution of a Federal Entitlement: The Case of Adoption Assistance Hansen, Mary Eschelbach Adoption assistance entitlements support the adoptions of children whose birth parents’ rights have been severed after abuse or neglect. The subsidies are meant to offset the extra cost to adoptive families of raising children whose adverse experiences have left them with special physical, emotional, or behavioral needs. Previous studies of adoption assistance are limited in scope; I use administrative data on all recorded adoptions from foster care from 1996 through 2003 to examine the distribution of adoption assistance across and within states. The state-tostate variation payments is large, even after controlling for differences in the cost of living. Moreover, although adoption assistance is an entitlement for children, payments made within many states are systematically correlated with the characteristics of adoptive families. There is substantial evidence that the state administration of this federal entitlement leads to unequal treatment of similar children. Working Paper No. 2006-13. 35 pages. Sun, 01 Oct 2006 00:00:00 GMT http://aladinrc.wrlc.org:80/handle/1961/4981 2006-10-01T00:00:00Z http://aladinrc.wrlc.org:80/handle/1961/4980 From Agreement to Application: A Cross Country Analysis of Injury Determinants under the WTO Antidumping Agreement Reynolds, Kara M. Although the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Antidumping Agreement includes rules that govern the application of antidumping duties, countries still have a great deal of latitude in how they decide whether to impose this form of protection. This research is one of the first papers to explore country and industry specific differences in the determinants of antidumping injury decisions. Using a randomcoefficients probit model, I estimate the amount of variance in the marginal impact of particular characteristics on the probability of an affirmative injury determination. I investigate to what extent this variance can be explained by specific characteristics of the investigating country. The results indicate that there is a great deal of inconsistency in injury decisions under the current WTO Antidumping Agreement. Working Paper No. 2006-12. 41 pages. Fri, 01 Sep 2006 00:00:00 GMT http://aladinrc.wrlc.org:80/handle/1961/4980 2006-09-01T00:00:00Z http://aladinrc.wrlc.org:80/handle/1961/4979 Unpublished Statistical Appendix to: Price Competition and the Fallacy of Composition in Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Estimates of Short-Run Growth Effects Blecker, Robert A.; Razmi, Arslan Working Paper No. 2006-11 appendix. Eight pages. Tue, 01 Aug 2006 00:00:00 GMT http://aladinrc.wrlc.org:80/handle/1961/4979 2006-08-01T00:00:00Z http://aladinrc.wrlc.org:80/handle/1961/4978 Why do the poor leave the safety net in Mexico? A study of the effects of conditionality on dropouts Alvarez, Carola; Devoto, Florencia; Winters, Paul This paper analyzes the characteristics of beneficiaries that drop out of the Mexican conditional cash transfer program Oportunidades to determine if dropping out of the program is a result of selftargeting by the non-poor, the exclusion of the target poor population or a combination of both. The analysis, which uses a duration model, indicates that it is the wealthier beneficiaries that have greater odds of dropping out suggesting that conditionality acts as a screening device. Results also indicate that administrative factors and the particular provider of health services to beneficiaries have an important influence on dropouts. Working Paper No. 2006-10. 24 pages. Mon, 01 May 2006 00:00:00 GMT http://aladinrc.wrlc.org:80/handle/1961/4978 2006-05-01T00:00:00Z http://aladinrc.wrlc.org:80/handle/1961/4977 Macroeconomic dimensions of social economics: Saving, the stock market, and pension systems Starr, Martha A. Saving, investment, and pensions are avenues by which households build up claims to future income and consumption. Such claims are important in a number of respects: they broaden people’s options, reduce their insecurities about material living standards, and enhance their ability to live with dignity in old age. As such, understanding the multiplicity of factors that shape how people save, invest and acquire pension rights is important for understanding their access to well-being and the ways in which social arrangements improve or undercut that access. This paper reviews social-economics perspectives on these macroeconomic issues, highlighting contributions of existing research and identifying fruitful directions for future work. Working Paper No. 2006-09. 20 pages. Mon, 01 May 2006 00:00:00 GMT http://aladinrc.wrlc.org:80/handle/1961/4977 2006-05-01T00:00:00Z